HOME>NEWS CENTER>Newsletters
IFF Newsletter | China Prices Fall, ECB Cuts Rates
TIME:2025-06-12
From the Editor
China's consumer prices fell for the fourth consecutive month in May, while factory-gate prices recorded their steepest decline in seven months, as data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on June 9 showed.
The consumer price index (CPI) dropped 0.1 percent year on year last month, and the producer price index (PPI) fell 3.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the NBS.
The European Central Bank (ECB) on June 5 announced a 25-basis-point rate cut and revised its inflation forecast downward in its latest staff projection. The deposit facility rate was lowered to 2%, while the rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility were cut to 2.15% and 2.4% respectively.
The ECB's June staff projections indicated that euro area inflation was expected to be 2% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and 2% in 2027. Compared with the March forecast, the projections for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting the ECB's concerns about the economic outlook.
The 2nd Sci-Tech Finance Dialogue of the International Finance Forum (IFF) — Hubei-Hong Kong Cooperation & Integration, and the WHIIID Hong Kong Tech Innovation Hive Collabration Forum, was successfully held on June 5, 2025, in Wuhan, Hubei Province.
This summit attracted representatives from 85 enterprises across various fields such as finance, technology and law to attend. This demonstrates the industry's high level of attention to the topic of "Hubei-Hong Kong cooperation and mutual empowerment".
China News
110,000 Trips: China-Europe Freight Train Service Embraces New Progress
The 110,000th China-Europe freight train departed from Qingdao in east China's Shandong Province on June 10 morning, marking a milestone in the service's high-quality development.
Loaded with 55 containers of home appliances, including LCD monitors and refrigerators worth nearly 20 million yuan (about 2.78 million U.S. dollars), the train will exit China via northern Inner Mongolia's Erenhot Port, the largest land port on the China-Mongolia border, before arriving in Europe in 17 days.
As of now, a total of 128 Chinese cities have launched China-Europe freight train service, reaching 229 cities in 26 European countries and over 100 cities in 11 Asian countries.
China Mulls Measures to Regulate Livestream E-commerce
Public opinion on regulations for the supervision and administration of livestream e-commerce is being solicited, China's top market regulator announced on June 10.
The State Administration for Market Regulation said that it has drafted the regulations in collaboration with the Cyberspace Administration of China to enhance livestream e-commerce supervision and administration, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of consumers and operators, and promote the healthy development of the sector.
The regulations require livestream e-commerce platform operators to enhance identity verification and qualification reviews for livestream room operators, livestream marketing services agencies and livestream marketing personnel.
Livestream marketing personnel are required to provide real, accurate and comprehensive introductions to products or services, and must not cheat or mislead consumers.
Operators of e-commerce platforms should cooperate with relevant authorities to take measures against those who violate market supervision or internet-related laws and regulations, the top market regulator said, emphasizing the legal responsibilities that should be borne for failing to meet legal obligations.
China’s Car Production, Sales Set Record Highs in May Amid Price War
China's car production and sales climbed to all-time highs last month, driven by government policies to boost domestic consumption and rising exports, amid intense price competition in the world’s biggest auto market,according to data from the China Passenger Car Association released on June 9.
Passenger car output rose 12.6 percent to 2.27 million units in May from a year earlier.
Retail sales of passenger cars expanded by more than 10 percent for the fourth time this year, jumping 13.3 percent to 1.93 million to top the 1.8 million record set in May 2018, the data also showed. Wholesale sales rose 12.8 percent to record 2.31 million units.
Stimulated by government policies such as subsidies for scrappage and trade-ins as well as a purchase tax waiver for new energy vehicles, NEV sales surged by over 28 percent to 1.02 million.
Car exports jumped 14 percent to 448,000 last month, with NEVs accounting for nearly 45 percent, compared with 28 percent a year earlier, according to the data. Exports by Chinese makers surged 18 percent to 375,000.
China’s Foreign Trade Grows 2.5% in First Five Months Despite Global Headwinds
China’s imports and exports expanded 2.5 percent from January to May from a year earlier, demonstrating strong resilience in the face of a tough international environment, according to the latest data released on June 9.
The total value of foreign trade reached CNY17.9 trillion (USD2.4 trillion) in the five months ended May 31, the data released today by the General Administration of Customs showed. Exports surged 7.2 percent to CNY10.6 trillion (USD1.49 trillion) while imports tumbled 3.8 percent to CNY7.2 trillion (USD1 trillion).
In US dollar terms, China’s foreign trade climbed 1.3 percent over the period to USD2.49 trillion. Exports jumped 6 percent to USD1.49 trillion, while imports slumped 4 percent to USD1 trillion. China’s trade surplus in May was USD103.2 billion, beating the forecast of USD97.1 billion by a Yicai survey of 14 economists.
China’s Consumer Prices Dip in May for Fourth Straight Month, as Factory Gate Prices Fall Most in Seven Months
China’s consumer prices fell in May for the fourth consecutive month, while factory gate prices tumbled at the fastest pace in seven months, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 9.
The consumer price index fell 0.1 percent last month from a year earlier.
In the prior three months, the CPI had declined by 0.1 percent, 0.1 percent, and 0.7 percent after increasing by 0.5 percent in January.
Last month, ex-works prices fell at the fastest clip since October, marking the 32nd consecutive month of decline. The producer price index fell 3.3 percent from a year earlier, the NBS data showed.
China Expands Gold Holdings for 7th Straight Month in May; Forex Reserves Edge Higher
China’s gold reserves rose for the seventh straight month in May, accompanied by a modest rise in foreign exchange reserves, amid easing tariff tensions and a mildly weakening US dollar, the People's Bank of China announced on June 7.
China's gold holdings reached 73.8 million ounces at the end of May, up 60,000 ounces from April, PBOC said.
International gold prices have surged sharply this year. Both COMEX gold futures and London spot gold ended May higher, despite heightened volatility throughout the month.
On the same day, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD3.29 trillion as of May 31, up USD 3.6 billion (or 0.1 percent) from April 30.
Newsletter
International News
S. Korea's Jobless Claims Fall in May
South Korea's jobless claims fell in four months due to weaker demand in health and welfare, public administration, and lodging and eatery industries, government data showed on June 9.
The number of new applicants for job-seeking benefits retreated 3.1 percent from a year earlier to 85,000 in May, after going up for the past three months, according to the Ministry of Employment and Labor.
The number of benefit receivers totaled 670,000 in May, up 3.7 percent from a year earlier.
The total payment of job-seeking benefits climbed 3.0 percent to 1.11 trillion won (818.1 million U.S. dollars) in the cited month.
Japan's Producer Price Growth Slows in May
Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) for May rose 3.2 percent year-on-year, marking a slowdown from April's 4.1-percent increase, data from the Bank of Japan showed on June 11.
This is the first time in six months that the growth rate has fallen to the 3-percent range as retreating prices for petroleum and coal products contributed to the drop.
The PPI reflects price movements of goods traded between companies and, alongside the Corporate Services Price Index, influences the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
In May, agricultural, forestry, and fishery products surged 42.8 percent year-on-year, still elevated due to factors such as soaring rice prices and the spread of avian influenza.
Prices for petroleum and coal products rose just 0.6 percent, a significant slowdown from April's 6.3 percent, as global crude oil prices declined.
Meanwhile, electricity, city gas, and water rates rose 6.5 percent, driven by the termination of government subsidies and an increase in renewable energy surcharges.
Out of 515 items tracked by the Bank of Japan, prices rose for 364 items and fell for 130.
World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecasts on Trade Barriers, Policy Uncertainty
The World Bank slashed global economic growth forecasts on June 10 citing heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
The turmoil resulted in lower growth forecasts in nearly 70 percent of all economies across all regions and income groups, according to the latest bi-annual Global Economic Prospects report issued on June 10.
The report cut the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 2.3 percent from 2.7 percent in January, 2025 with the 2026 growth forecast lowered to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent.
Advanced economies are expected to see an expansion of 1.2 percent in 2025, down from 1.7 percent in earlier forecasts while the growth forecast with emerging market and developing economies was lowered by 0.3 percentage points to 3.8 percent in 2025.
In particular, the United States is expected to grow by 1.4 percent in 2025, 0.9 percentage points less than previous forecast and only half of the 2.8 percent growth in 2024.
Both the Euro Area and Japan are expected to grow 0.7 percent this year, 0.3 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points lower from previous estimates, respectively, while China's growth forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged.
ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25 BP as Inflation Forecast Tevised Down
The European Central Bank (ECB) on June 5 made another rate cut of 25 basis points and revised its inflation forecast down in its latest staff projection.
The rate on the deposit facility has been brought down to two percent, and the rates on the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility have been cut down to 2.15 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.
"Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council's 2 percent medium-term target on a sustained basis," said the ECB in a statement.
According to its staff projections in June, the ECB sees the inflation in the euro area to be two percent in 2025, 1.6 percent in 2026, and two percent in 2027. The projections for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 0.3 percentage points compared with the March forecast.
It is worth noting that the inflation would undershoot the ECB target in 2026 should the projections materialize.
Looking ahead, the ECB once again excluded any particular rate path, saying that its monetary policies in the future will be decided meeting by meeting.
Uncertainty High Among US Small Businesses in May
Uncertainty remained high among U.S. small businesses in May, according to data released on June 10 from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
According to the small business optimism index, a net 1 percent of small business owners viewed current inventory stocks as "too low" in May, up 7 points from the month prior and the highest reading since August 2022.
This was the largest monthly increase in the survey's history.
The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 10 points from April to a net 25 percent.
The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 11 points from April to a net 10 percent. This component contributed the most to the small business optimism index's improvement.
US Nonfarm Job Growth Slows in May
US nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000 in May, down 5.4 percent from April's revised total, according to data released on June 6 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The data show that despite employment showing little change over the month in sectors such as mining and manufacturing, the employment-population ratio fell by 0.3 percentage points to 59.7 percent in May.
While the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, the number of people jobless for less than five weeks increased by 264,000 to 2.5 million in May. The number of the long-term unemployed, being jobless for 27 weeks or more, decreased over the month by 218,000 to 1.5 million, accounting for 20.4 percent of all unemployed people.
While the headline unemployment rate held steady, downward revisions to prior months suggest the job market may be losing momentum amid ongoing economic uncertainty and policy headwinds.
March's nonfarm payroll figure was lowered by 65,000 to 120,000, while April's total was cut by 30,000 to 147,000 -- a combined downward revision of 95,000 jobs from earlier estimates.