IFF Newsletter | China's CPI Rose 0.4 Percent in Sept.

TIME：2024-10-19

From the Editor

The Ministry of Finance of China announced plans to raise its debt ceiling to help local governments alleviate debt risks, recapitalize state banks, bolster the real estate sector, and aid low-income groups, as part of a bold fiscal stimulus package designed to lift confidence and spur the economy on October 12.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the U.S. in September increased by 2.4 percent from a year ago, the lowest level in three months, while it increased by 0.2% from a month earlier, with the unchanged growth rate for three consecutive months, the U.S. Labor Department reported on October 10.

Newsletter

Latest from the IFF

IFF Academic Workshop augurs future of IMF, World Bank on 80th anniversary

The International Finance Forum (IFF) hosted an academic workshop on the theme of the ‘Future of the Bretton Woods Institutions’ on October 21.

The one-hour online event staged against the backdrop of the upcoming 80th anniversary annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank discussed the future of these Bretton Woods institutions, and featured a presentation on the Bretton Woods @80 Initiative by Lord Mark Malloch Brown, President of the Open Society Foundations and Former Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, who is playing a key role as a member of the group of global external advisors to guide this effort. Working with the leadership of the IMF and the World Bank, the Bretton Woods @80 Initiative is consulting with a broad range of stakeholders to review the long-term forces that will shape the future of the global economy, ascertain how multilateralism may evolve, and what this might mean for the role and work of the IMF and World Bank in the period ahead.

【IFF Live】The "Global AI Competitiveness Index Report" is about to be released

From October 8th to 11th, the IFF Live Broadcasting Room hosted three live streams, focusing on the current state and future of artificial intelligence from a global perspective, mental health in the workplace, and the secrets behind the longevity of Japanese real estate companies.

Newsletter

China News

China to Introduce Incremental Fiscal Policy Measures to Support Economy

China will introduce a package of targeted incremental fiscal policy measures in the near future to boost the economy, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an told a press conference on October 12.

The package includes increasing the debt ceiling on a relatively large scale in a lump sum to replace existing hidden debts of local governments and help defuse their debt risks.

The minister said the counter-cyclical adjustment involves policies that are already going through relevant decision-making procedures and other policy tools in consideration, such as debt issuance and deficit rise. There remains considerable room for China's central finance to issue debts and expand the deficit.

China’s New Private Economy Law Aims to Lift Confidence, Spur Innovation

The Chinese government published a 77-article draft of the Private Economy Promotion Law, on October 11, to promote the long-term, healthy, and high-quality development of the private economy, with the aim of boosting investor confidence and driving innovation.

The law was released on the websites of the Ministry of Justice and the National Development and Reform Commission and is open for public consultation through November 8.

As the country’s first basic law on the private economy, the draft is intended to create a better environment for fair competition, private investment, and technological innovation, as well as protect the rights and interests of private enterprises, boost market confidence, and stabilize market expectations, according to an NDRC official.

China’s Consumer Inflation Rises for Eighth Straight Month in September

China's consumer price index in September rose 0.4 percent in September from a year earlier, maintaining growth for the eighth consecutive month, while increasing at the lowest since June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics said on October 13.

The producer price index, an indicator of corporate profitability, dipped 2.8 percent last month from a year earlier and fell for the 24th consecutive month and by the most since March, mainly impacted by fluctuations in commodity prices on international markets and insufficient domestic demand, according to the NBS.

China's Foreign Trade up 5.3 Pct in First Three Quarters

China's total goods imports and exports expanded 5.3 percent year on year in yuan terms in the first three quarters of this year, maintaining stable growth, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) data showed on October 14.

The goods trade volume expanded toRMB 32.33 trillion (about USD 4.57 trillion) in the January-September period, reaching a new high.

Exports rose 6.2 percent year-on-year to RMB 18.62 trillion, while imports climbed 4.1 percent year on year to 13.71 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, according to the data.

China's Yuan Loans Grow by 16.02 Trln Yuan in First 3 Quarters

China's yuan-denominated loans rose byRMB 16.02 trillion (about USD 2.27 trillion) in the first three quarters of the year, central bank data showed on October 14.

The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased 6.8 percent year on year to 309.48 trillion yuan at the end of September.

The increase in social financing scale reached 25.66 trillion yuan in the first nine months, down 3.68 trillion yuan compared to last year.

Goldman Sachs Raises China Economic Growth Forecasts

Goldman Sachs lifted its forecasts on China's economic growth for 2024 and 2025 on the grounds of the country's recent pro-growth measures on October 13.

China's gross domestic products (GDP) would expand by 4.9 percent in 2024, up from an earlier forecast of 4.7 percent, according to a report by the investment bank. Goldman raised the perdition of China’s GDP growth for next year to 4.7 percent from 4.3 percent.

Newsletter

International News

U.S. CPI up 2.4 Pct in September as Inflation Continues to Cool

U.S. consumer inflation in September increased 2.4 percent from a year ago, after climbing 2.5 percent in August and 2.9 percent in July, the U.S. Labor Department reported on October 10.

According to the report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) -- a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy -- increased 0.2 percent month on month after seasonal adjustment in September, the same increase as in August and July.

The latest inflation report showed that the so-called core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3 percent in September, as it did the preceding month.

The core CPI has risen 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, indicating continued inflation pressure. In August, the 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2 percent.

S. Korea's Jobless Claims Fall in September

South Korea's jobless claims fell for the second successive month due to weaker demand in the education service, the health and social welfare and the eatery and lodging sectors, the Ministry of Employment and Labor's data showed on October 14.

The number of new applicants for job-seeking benefits was 81,000 in September, down 1.0 percent compared with the same month of 2023.It kept a downward trend after going down 0.6 percent in the previous month amid lingering worry about an economic slump.

Singapore's Economy up 4.1 Pct in Q3

The Singapore economy grew 4.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, extending the 2.9 percent growth in the previous quarter, according to the advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry on October 14.

The manufacturing sector expanded 7.5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, rebounding from the 1.1 percent contraction in the previous quarter; while the growth of services-producing industries moderated from 3.6 percent in the second quarter to 3.3 percent in the third quarter.

Supported by public sector construction output, the construction sector grew 3.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, easing from the 4.8 percent growth in the preceding quarter.

German Inflation Declines to 1.6 Pct in September

Germany's inflation rate eased to 1.6 percent in September, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. These figures, released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on October 11, mark the lowest level in over three years.

A significant drop in energy prices in September contributed to the slowdown in inflation, said Ruth Brand, head of the statistics authority. Energy product prices fell by 7.6 percent year-on-year, following declines of 5.1 percent and 1.7 percent in the previous two months. Food prices also only rose by 1.6 percent.

British Gov't Needs 26 Bln Dollars in Tax Rises, Says Think Tank

Despite recent positive developments in the economy and inflation rates, the British government may need over 20 billion pounds (USD 26.13 billion) to meet its increased spending goals and investment demands, the Resolution Foundation (RF) said in a report on October 14

The government may need to introduce tax hikes to prevent a return to austerity in the upcoming autumn budget. This would enable the government to boost departmental spending and make critical investments, according to the report by the London-based think tank.

OPEC Further Cuts 2024, 2025 Global Oil Demand Forecast

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on October 14 further trimmed forecasts for global oil demand growth this year and next, marking the organization's downward revision for the third consecutive month.

In its monthly oil market report for October, OPEC projected a global oil demand growth of 1.93 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024, down 106,000 bpd from the growth of 2.03 million bpd expected last month.

OPEC attributed the adjustment to "actual data received combined with slightly lower expectations for the oil demand performance in some regions."